The Ames Straw Poll - August 2011

A few thoughts in the wake of yesterday's Ames Straw Poll:

• Tim Pawlenty packed his bags quickly after his weak showing and dropped out of the presidential race. He's the first candidate whose prospects in a general election would be better than his chances to win the republican nomination. He won't be the last.


• Michelle Backmann is exceeding expectations. She is a terrific campaigner who can fire up a crowd and apparently is a charming retail politician. Her stance on the debt ceiling will kill her with anyone outside the Tea Party - we can't have someone sitting in the White House who will simply veto any attempt to raise the debt ceiling.


• After all the calculus is applied, the person who scored the biggest win in yesterday's contest may have been Mitt Romney. Romney, through no fault of his own, got rid of one contender (Pawlenty) who might have contested for the hearts and souls of the republican establishment. Rick Perry's entrance in the race means that for the next month or two Michelle Bachmann and Perry will be sniping at each other and driving up each others' negatives. This trangulation scenario is just about the only way that Romney can step around his basic hypocracy and unlikeability and force the republican party to accept him.


• Rick Perry arrived on the scene like an 800 pound gorilla with his evangelical boom box cranked to '11'. This guy has appeal to republicans on a number of levels - he's a low-tax, small government super-Christian with a nice job creation story to tell. He has not been vetted - and man, when the examination starts he's going to have some 'splainin' to do. How about a guy who does not believe the federal government has the right to an income tax? How about a president who has been repeatedly quoted as saying that Texas secession is a legitimate topic of conversation? The way that Perry gets elected is this:




1. Knock out Michelle Bachmann early, and turn this into a two man race with Romney. This means that Perry has to win the Iowa caucuses - if Bachmann survives to New Hampshire, it's advantage Romney.
   
2. Out-Romney Romney. Mitt Romney's stump speech is about his ability to create jobs. The fact that he spent his private sector career destroying jobs instead of creating them does not get discussed until the general. Perry does better in this area, as long as folks don't drill down on the numbers. Of the jobs created in the US last year, Texas created about 1/3 of them. About 40% of those jobs were minimum wage burger flipping / farm worker jobs that don't pay enough to support a family, but hey - a job is a job, right?
   
3. Get to South Carolina, and let the Bible Christians take care of the rest. If the folks in South Carolina and the Bible-thumping South have one of their own to vote for, Mitt can fold up his funny underwear and head for home. The last time we were here, George Bush was conducting whisper campaigns about John McCain's wife and family with the help of the Christian Right. South Carolina is the big final exam for Romney. I'm waiting to see when he decides to travel down there to build some momentum for the meduim-term campaign.