Jordan's Power Rankings - Week 11

Didn’t see that coming

Last week, the bottom 3 teams in our ranking went 3-0. Only the Midwest-Northboro game followed the script, with the Marauders strolling to an easy victory. This week’s rankings are almost unchanged from last week, but the space between the clubs is a lot smaller than it was. There is only one sure thing to report – Midwest will make the playoffs.

This week’s rankings…

1. Midwest – They made it look easy in their win over Northboro, putting up a workmanlike 66 points without any particularly eye-popping performances – except perhaps for Nick Kaeding’s 15 point effort. Beanie Wells is contributing steadily now. This is the team to beat this year.
2. Phight-in Camels – Tony got slam-dunked by Mr. Garvey, who was the happy beneficiary of Ronnie Brown’s injury, and the subsequent rise of Ricky Williams to Fantasy Stud status. Tony needs an answer at the third running back slot in order to keep pace with the league’s best teams.
3. Dangerous Minds – They are 5-6, but they scored 75 points in last week’s loss. If they keep performing like that, they will be in the playoffs. If they get to the playoffs, and they face off against Midwest, our Super Bowl may be played a week early.
4. Northern Spies – They ran into an unlikely buzz saw last week, as the Georgia Satellites laid 76 points on them. There was a bit of good news, though – Terrell Owens went completely nuts in Buffalo. How does Rich play this? Owens is a difference-maker when he’s right. Obviously, he has a better rapport with Ryan Fitzpatrick than he had with Trent Edwards. It’ll be interesting to see how the Spies work this out. The matchup with Tony is the Game of the Week.
5. Northboro – Bad decisions. The Benson injury made some difference, although Hightower has a nice afternoon. What killed the Steroids was running Ocho at Nnamdi. It’s not so much that Nnamdi is a phenomenal defender – although he is all that. It’s mainly that teams just don’t throw the ball to his side of the field at all – Ocho had only five targets all day. Sitting Greg Jennings – my version of Terrell Owens this year – also killed me.
6. Rocky Brook – Tom has it really uncorked now, as they ambushed the Dangerous Minds last week, snapping Mike’s five game winning streak. Maroney’s 15 was huge, as was the terrific pick-and-play of Robbie Gould, who went for 14 points.
7. Garvey’s Gangsters - Has any player ever resurrected his career from the ashes of self-destruction and stupidity the way Ricky Williams has? Two years ago, this guy retired so he could smoke hash in Thailand. If Williams stays healthy, this club suddenly becomes scary.
8. Georgia Satellites – Out of nowhere. Unfortunately, Garvey and John will be beating on each other this week. John may have enough left in the tank to throw a monkey wrench into the playoff plans of the teams left on it schedule – The Gangsters, Dangerous Minds, and Northboro.

Happy Thankgiving to the Nelson League. I hope everyone is in good health and great spirits as we head into the holiday season.

Jordan's 2009 Power Rankings - Week 10

Skip the Fluff

My son is home from Australia, and the weekend is packed. So, in the words of an old boss of mine, I’ll skip the fluff and get right to it.

This week’s rankings.

1. Midwest – I don’t want to play them, but lo…there they are on the schedule. My Carolina guys were OK on Thursday and Cedrick Benson is hurt, so Hugh’s club will be 8-3 shortly. Not a team you want to face when you need a win.
2. Phight-in Camels – Tony picked up John Forsett this week – the guy I wanted but I got there too late. Forsett has gorgeous matchups through the late season and into the playoffs, and he’s been running well. He will be a major factor in Tony’s playoff run. The matchup with the Gangsters this week did not start well for the Camels – Ricky Williams put up 23 points.
3. Dangerous Minds – They’ve won four straight and they will make the playoffs unless someone surprises them. This week, Rocky Brook brings their A Team to the Sheff for a critically important game. In terms of playoff implications, this might be the most important game on the schedule this week.
4. Northern Spies - A nice win against Northboro last week puts them in the hunt for a playoff spot. They win the tie breaker with the Steroids by virtue of having beaten them twice. Now, they need to avoid missteps – they need to take care of business against John’s Georgia Satellites this week. The depth of this team may be tested with Reggie Bush limping.
5. Northboro Steroids – Injuries and bad matchups showed up all at the same time. Benson is down, Carolina played Miami – a matchup I highlighted last week as undesirable. Ocho Cinco is face-up with Nnamdi Asomugha out in Oakland – also not good. The key becomes getting everyone back healthy for week 12. If I have a full stable for the last three weeks of the year, I could still sneak into the playoffs. At this point, however, we are a long shot.
6. Rocky Brook – They have it going on now that they are healthy. They caught a bad break last week, losing to Tony by 2 points in a week when Vincent Jackson somehow went scoreless. Tony is having one of those magic years.
7. Garvey’s Gangsters – The dynamics have changed a bit with Ronnie Brown’s injury, which turns Ricky Williams into one of the top 5 running backs in fantasy Football. Rich has Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai scoring well. Vernon Davis is has had a great year. Santonio Holmes should get a start against KC this week – there’s no way he doesn’t score against the awful Chiefs.
8. Georgia Satellites – John is looking to ruin someone’s Sunday. This week, the Spies show up looking to bolster their playoff Bona Fides. John is playing Tony Gonzales over Roddy White against the Giants – we’ll see how this works out.

Jordan's 2009 Power Rankings - Week 9

Matchups

Right now, the distance between the top scoring team in the Nelson (Dangerous Minds, 64.7 PPG) and the bottom-scoring team (Georgia, 53.8) is less than 11 points a week. With parity like that, games frequently come down to decisions and intangibles, such as points against. After 9 weeks, Georgia is leading the league in Points Against (580, 64.4 points per week), while the Northern Spies have been a rolling power outage all season, giving up a league low 467 points (51.9 Points per week).

Points against is an example of an important factor that simply cannot be measured – a pure intangible. Byes and matchup are two more. Last week, Mike was fortunate to match up with a declawed Northern Spies outfit, who was substituting Clinton Portis for Andrian Petersen because of the bye week. In typical fashion, I get to play that same Northern Spies team this week with Petersen set to feast on the pussycats from Detroit. Bad timing, and there is no way to plan or coach around that situation.

The ability to read matchups is a key to good fantasy management. There is no sure formula – sometimes a guy will go off against a team that usually defends him well, as Cedrick Benson has this year in his games against Baltimore. Here’s a few observations on matchups as we head into week 10:

• Play running backs against Oakland, but not QBs. The Raiders are pretty decent against the pass, but they’ve been giving up oodles of yardage on the ground this year. One reinforces the other – if a team is ripping off 7 yards a carry, they will be content to hand the ball off all afternoon.
• Play receivers against Tennessee. Last week, the Titans intercepted Alex Smith three times, but Vernon Davis had 10 catches for 102 yards and some dude named Jason Hill had 2 TD receptions. This has been happening all year – the Titans have no pass rush with Albert Heyworth gone.
• Do not play running backs against Miami. Miami is incredible at holding on to the football, and they can’t stop the pass. So, after watching Miami grind nine minutes off the clock, teams drop back and toss the ball with impunity. This has happened with the Colts, Patriots, Chargers and Saints so far this year – and that’s only the games I’ve watched myself.
• Play running backs against New Orleans. This might seem counter-intuitive. If the Saints offense is rolling, you would figure teams would have to throw against them. But teams that commit to the run – Atlanta and Carolina come to mine – have had much success against New Orleans.
• Don’t play anyone against Indy and New England – They are not only terrific on offense, but both these clubs are dynamite defensively as well. Add to that the usual problem of trying to come back against Peyton and Brady, and you have a real House of Horrors. Ditto for Pittsburgh with Polamalu back. Avoid…avoid.

This week’s rankings…

1. Phight-in Camels – They won a pivotal matchup against a terrific Midwest club last week, and they hang onto the #1 spot for the fourth week in a row. They have the #1 running back in the league in Mo Jo Drew. Drew has a sore knee and is facing a very tough Jets defense in New York this week. Undrafted Miles Austin is now the #3 receiver in our league – a great waiver addition for Tony.
2. Northboro – An 85 point explosion last week vaults the Steroids into second in the rankings. Choppy water is ahead, though – the Bengals travel to Pittsburgh this week and DeAngelo Williams is dragging a leg into Sunday’s tilt with Atlanta. Williams is a dreaded game-time decision, so you can bet I’ll be hitting Mass on Saturday Night this week.
3. Midwest Marauders – Hugh is a prohibitive favorite as he heads down to Georgia for some warm Southern Hospitality. Andre Johnson is on the bye, but Nate Burleson against Arizona’s 29th ranked pass defense is a nice bench option. Kurt Warner gets promoted to the starting lineup after shredding the Bears for five TDs last week.
4. Dangerous Minds – They are playing well, have won three straight, and their Rabbits feet are jacked up to 11. Two weeks ago, it was the Steroids with no Bengals. Last week, the Spies with no Petersen. This week – Garvey’s Gangsters, who are forced to play lame-ass Willis McGahee because Brandon Jacobs and Steve Slaton are both on the bye. McGahee has 12 yards rushing in the last six weeks. It probably wouldn’t matter anyway – Mike hasn’t scored less than 68 points since week 4.
5. Northern Spies – They were wretched last week, scoring only 41 points with Adrian on the bye. Ah, but this week all the winds are at their back – Petersen against the Lions, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Jeremy Shockey against St. Louis. Life is good when you’re playing Northboro.
6. Garvey’s Gangsters – Nothing is going right for the Garv. Dangeous Minds come to town red hot, and Rich is packing nerf pistols for the big gun fight. Incredibly, they are still first in total points (931), but they are dead last in Game Points (480). Vernon Davis has been a terrific addition for the Gangsters.
7. Rocky Brook – Gore is back and the Radar Boys are heating up again. They have Drew Brees unleashed, and Vincent Jackson is the league’s #1 receiver. The matchup with top-ranked Tony is going to be a great one. The key to this team is Stephen Jackson. If he scores, this is a very dangerous club.
8. Georgia - Next-to-Last in Game Points, and dead last in Relative Won-Lost Percentage, John is struggling through a brutal season. Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall have been bright spots. They’ll tee it up against a pissed-off Midwest outfit this week.

Jordan's 2009 Power Rankings - Week 8

A Little like Fate

Among life’s most satisfying moments are those when you analyze a situation, and make a great call. When your tea leaves tell the tale exactly as it transpires, you get that rush that comes from peeking into the future, and acting on your instincts. The illusion we have that we control our own lives and steer our own course is reinforced.

A few years back, I had an analogous moment, although not one that I recall with fondness. I was sitting in my car at the top of an icy hill waiting for a red light to turn green. I glanced in the rear view mirror and saw a car rolling up the hill towards me. He was at least 1000 yards off, but I knew he would rear end me. There was absolutely nothing I could do about it. I watched for 40 seconds or so as he rolled up behind me. Sure enough, his car skidded into my rear bumper, and I spent the next twenty minutes on a side street exchanging insurance information.

Last week, I knew I was in trouble. My Bengals were on the bye, but I have some depth this year, so I was reasonably confident that I could squeeze points out of my bench. I got nice performances out of Greg Jennings and Tim Hightower, and the guys performed allright in general – my twin Carolina tailbacks were fantastic. Owen Daniels’ injury was a killer. But my biggest problem was figuring out who to play at Quarterback. Neither matchup was favorable – Schaub and Rivers were playing Buffalo and Oakland, respectively, and both of those teams are tough against the pass and soft against the run. Sure enough, I picked the wrong guy – Schaub had only 7, but Rivers had only 8. San Diego and Houston combined for five rushing TDs between them. It was like watching that guy roll up that icy hill, knowing I was doomed.

The bye weeks are mostly behind us, and now is the time to lay all the cards on the table and see what happens. John and Tom are playing the spoilers at this point, but everyone else is stoked and ready for the stretch run. This week’s rankings…

1. Phight-in Camels – The Phillies went down in the World Series, but the Eagles tossed the Giants around, and Tony crushed John by 16 points. The Camels have been consistent and opportunistic this year – they added waiver wire poster boy Ryan Moats this week. Miles Austin continues to light it up in Dallas. Tony can sit down, watch the Philly-Dallas game where he has 4 players, and go do yard work the rest of the weekend.
2. Midwest – They have topped 79 point three times this year, including last week’s 81-71 win over Rocky Brook. In the games that they haven’t scored well, they have averaged 50 point a game, and they are 3-2. Winning when your club doesn’t play well is a key in our league. They’ve won 4 straight, but this week Midwest takes their 6-2 record into a monumental clash with the top-seeded Camels.
3. Northboro – Everybody’s back this week, which is good, because suddenly I need a win. Greg Jennings had a good week last week, which is encouraging. My WR3 spot has been a black hole all year. It looks like my best lineup includes both Carolina running backs. I have no idea how this is going to work for the late season and playoffs, but the schedule is not promising. Carolina plays at New England week 14, at home against Minnesota week 15, and on the road at the Giants Week 16. Ugly.
4. Dangerous Minds – Their standings in the Rankings are incongruous with their 3-5 record, but their won-lost mark does not reflect their statistical performance. The Minds are second in Game Points behind Tony, and first in relative won-lost percentage. Mike has been putting his psychic gifts to work all year – his Game Point Percentage is .693, meaning that almost 70% of his team’s points have been scored by his starting lineup. They’ll play this week without Thomas Jones, but the Northern Spies have…
5. Northern Spies – …no Adrian Petersen. The Spies blasted the Gangsters by 38 last week – one of the largest margins of victory any team has recorded in this Year of the Nail Biters. The Spies have their secret decoder rings set to ‘kill,’ but they have their work cut out for them against Mike’s Dangerous Minds this week as they head into the contest without the league’s top running back.
6. Garvey’s Gangsters – The enigmatic Gangsters laid an egg last week against the Spies, scoring only 38 points. This week’s contest with Northboro boils down to watching San Diego against the Giants and Indy vs. Houston. Northboro and the Gangsters have seven players in those two games.
7. Rocky Brook – Tom barely avoids the cellar thanks to a 71 point effort last week. Just as Stephen Jackson finally finds the end zone, St. Louis goes on the bye. Jackson has been an absolute warrior for a pathetic St. Louis outfit this year, but his lack of end zone love has killed Tom this year. Jackson is actually second on the Oilers in scoring among running backs. Frank Gore is first – and he missed four weeks because of an injury. They’ll try to break their six game slide against Georgia this week.
8. Georgia Satellites – The are next-to-last in Game Points, and dead last in Relative Won-Lost Percentage (.321). Matt Ryan is proving to be a better NFL quarterback than a Fantasy League quarterback – he is ranked 13s at the position in scoring. John tries to escape the basement against Rocky Brook this week.