Jordan's 2009 Power Rankings - Week 9

Matchups

Right now, the distance between the top scoring team in the Nelson (Dangerous Minds, 64.7 PPG) and the bottom-scoring team (Georgia, 53.8) is less than 11 points a week. With parity like that, games frequently come down to decisions and intangibles, such as points against. After 9 weeks, Georgia is leading the league in Points Against (580, 64.4 points per week), while the Northern Spies have been a rolling power outage all season, giving up a league low 467 points (51.9 Points per week).

Points against is an example of an important factor that simply cannot be measured – a pure intangible. Byes and matchup are two more. Last week, Mike was fortunate to match up with a declawed Northern Spies outfit, who was substituting Clinton Portis for Andrian Petersen because of the bye week. In typical fashion, I get to play that same Northern Spies team this week with Petersen set to feast on the pussycats from Detroit. Bad timing, and there is no way to plan or coach around that situation.

The ability to read matchups is a key to good fantasy management. There is no sure formula – sometimes a guy will go off against a team that usually defends him well, as Cedrick Benson has this year in his games against Baltimore. Here’s a few observations on matchups as we head into week 10:

• Play running backs against Oakland, but not QBs. The Raiders are pretty decent against the pass, but they’ve been giving up oodles of yardage on the ground this year. One reinforces the other – if a team is ripping off 7 yards a carry, they will be content to hand the ball off all afternoon.
• Play receivers against Tennessee. Last week, the Titans intercepted Alex Smith three times, but Vernon Davis had 10 catches for 102 yards and some dude named Jason Hill had 2 TD receptions. This has been happening all year – the Titans have no pass rush with Albert Heyworth gone.
• Do not play running backs against Miami. Miami is incredible at holding on to the football, and they can’t stop the pass. So, after watching Miami grind nine minutes off the clock, teams drop back and toss the ball with impunity. This has happened with the Colts, Patriots, Chargers and Saints so far this year – and that’s only the games I’ve watched myself.
• Play running backs against New Orleans. This might seem counter-intuitive. If the Saints offense is rolling, you would figure teams would have to throw against them. But teams that commit to the run – Atlanta and Carolina come to mine – have had much success against New Orleans.
• Don’t play anyone against Indy and New England – They are not only terrific on offense, but both these clubs are dynamite defensively as well. Add to that the usual problem of trying to come back against Peyton and Brady, and you have a real House of Horrors. Ditto for Pittsburgh with Polamalu back. Avoid…avoid.

This week’s rankings…

1. Phight-in Camels – They won a pivotal matchup against a terrific Midwest club last week, and they hang onto the #1 spot for the fourth week in a row. They have the #1 running back in the league in Mo Jo Drew. Drew has a sore knee and is facing a very tough Jets defense in New York this week. Undrafted Miles Austin is now the #3 receiver in our league – a great waiver addition for Tony.
2. Northboro – An 85 point explosion last week vaults the Steroids into second in the rankings. Choppy water is ahead, though – the Bengals travel to Pittsburgh this week and DeAngelo Williams is dragging a leg into Sunday’s tilt with Atlanta. Williams is a dreaded game-time decision, so you can bet I’ll be hitting Mass on Saturday Night this week.
3. Midwest Marauders – Hugh is a prohibitive favorite as he heads down to Georgia for some warm Southern Hospitality. Andre Johnson is on the bye, but Nate Burleson against Arizona’s 29th ranked pass defense is a nice bench option. Kurt Warner gets promoted to the starting lineup after shredding the Bears for five TDs last week.
4. Dangerous Minds – They are playing well, have won three straight, and their Rabbits feet are jacked up to 11. Two weeks ago, it was the Steroids with no Bengals. Last week, the Spies with no Petersen. This week – Garvey’s Gangsters, who are forced to play lame-ass Willis McGahee because Brandon Jacobs and Steve Slaton are both on the bye. McGahee has 12 yards rushing in the last six weeks. It probably wouldn’t matter anyway – Mike hasn’t scored less than 68 points since week 4.
5. Northern Spies – They were wretched last week, scoring only 41 points with Adrian on the bye. Ah, but this week all the winds are at their back – Petersen against the Lions, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Jeremy Shockey against St. Louis. Life is good when you’re playing Northboro.
6. Garvey’s Gangsters – Nothing is going right for the Garv. Dangeous Minds come to town red hot, and Rich is packing nerf pistols for the big gun fight. Incredibly, they are still first in total points (931), but they are dead last in Game Points (480). Vernon Davis has been a terrific addition for the Gangsters.
7. Rocky Brook – Gore is back and the Radar Boys are heating up again. They have Drew Brees unleashed, and Vincent Jackson is the league’s #1 receiver. The matchup with top-ranked Tony is going to be a great one. The key to this team is Stephen Jackson. If he scores, this is a very dangerous club.
8. Georgia - Next-to-Last in Game Points, and dead last in Relative Won-Lost Percentage, John is struggling through a brutal season. Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall have been bright spots. They’ll tee it up against a pissed-off Midwest outfit this week.