Waiting On the Pine
The bye weeks start tomorrow and extend through week 10 – seven weeks when the depth of our outfits will be tested to the max. This week while we line ‘em up in order, we take a quick look at the benches – guys who are not Chris Johnson and Drew Brees – to see which teams are set up to thrive on thin rosters.
Some interesting league-wide trends emerge from a study of bench points. The number of bench points scored by teams in the first three weeks has increased from 28.5 per team to 47 points per team in week 3. A big part of this is that we add players each of the first few weeks. Those first few waiver picks are lucrative – looking at this raw data, and not analyzing it too closely, one can leap to the conclusion that those players are pulling down almost ten points per game in week 3. So guys like Benjarvis Green-Ellis (10 points in week 3), Mark Clayton (22 points in 3 weeks), and Michael Vick (24 points in week 3) are probably headed for the starting lineups at some point during the bye weeks.
Not all benchies are equally valuable. If you have a kicker performing well on your bench, and another performing well in your starting lineup, the bench guy is window dressing until you hit a bye week or an injury occurs. Ditto the QBs we have squirreled away. If you are starting a Brady or a Manning or a Rogers, the QBs on the farm are for emergencies only.
Wide receivers and running backs are the real currency of a good Nelson League bench. If you have a good guy on your bench, you have decisions to make every week, based on matchups and hunches. The effective bench guys slide painlessly into your starting lineup during the bye weeks, when the Michael Turners and Chris Johnsons are off rehearsing for their next Nike commercial.
This week’s rankings…
1. Garvey’s Gangsters – Last week was not exactly pretty. Rich scored 49 points thanks to a fine juggle of the receiving corps – Marques Colston and Vernon Davis are very difficult guys to sit, but sit they did. That’s not the same as saying that playing Mario Manningham and Mark Clayton was an act of towering genius – they scored a modest seven points between them – but avoiding disaster is often as important as scoring big in this league.
The Gangsters are last in the league in bench points. This could spell trouble in the next seven weeks. But with Santonio Holmes arriving eventually, and guys like Jericho Cotchery to work with, this club has a deep receiving corp to help them get by. The running back situation is another story – the best they can do is Felix Jones.
2. Georgia Satellites – After John racked up 71 points to pound Midwest last week, Bri said to me – “It’s time to re-evaluate John’s club.” Indeed, this is the club that has exceeded expectations the most in my mind. They are still fifth in the league in points scored, but Austin Colle is emerging as this year’s Miles Austin – 20 last week, and he is now the #1 ranked wideout in our league.
John is next to last in Points on the Pine with 93 through the first 3 weeks. That looks deceptive, though, because there are at least three names on the bench – Ladanian Tomlinson, Tony Gonzalez and Hines Ward – who are perfectly usable in any week. This team is deeper than the numbers make them look.
3. Northboro Steroids – Last week, the #1 (Mikey Turner) and and #2 (Randall Moss) draft picks were money, scoring 11 and 14 points between them. Northboro is leading the league in points at 218 through 3 weeks, and except for Jahvit Best’s grade 2 turf toe, they are healthy. This club has it working at the moment.
The bench is also good news for the ‘Roids. They are leading the league in total bench points, averaging over 60 a game. Part of this is the management’s inability to pick the right players – Best’s 28 point effort week 2 was this year’s top “Pine Bomb” so far, and last week Michael Vick went for 24, although we get a pass for that (Phillip Rivers had 19). The gold here is having Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis in the hole. That bodes well for the desert times coming up. The big problem is the lack of decent wideout options – although Mike Williams has been half decent (17 points through 3 weeks).
4. Dangerous Minds – Yeah, they’re 1-2, but they are second in the league in points scored, and both of their losses have been of the flukey variety. They scored well in week 1 but picked the wrong week to play Northboro. They lost last week to Rich Garvey (has that ever happened before?) when Green Bay played like the mid-90s Oakland Raiders. The rabbit I mentioned last week seems to have hopped a train for Mill Street Park to cheer on the Gangsters.
Mike has a terrific receiving option on his bench in Malcolm Floyd (22 points), but his backup running back situation is a little ugly – Donald Brown and Lawrence Maroney do not scare anyone.
5. Rocky Brook – I have not been a big believer in this club to date, but they are trundling along at 2-1, and their secondary players beyond Tom Brady and Chris Johnson are starting to produce. Anquan Boldin (31 points) is playing like a man possessed so far and Braylon Edwards (20 points) is clearly going to have some huge weeks as long as he can stay out of jail.
This is not a very deep club. The question marks are with the running game primarily, and we’re all staring at you, Shonn Greene. This week, Tom is taking Shonn for a test drive in a matchup against Buffalo. We’ll see if he gets some red zone love with Tomlinson playing like a kid out there.
6. Fight-in Camels – And here we have Exhibit A in our list of reasons you need running back depth to survive the bye weeks. This week, Tony goes against the top-ranked Gangsters in what would be a winnable game for the Camels if they had Adrian Peterson. They don’t – he’s on the bye. (Rich Garvey getting lucky bounces? Is that Jesus at the door?) So Tony will apparently be plugging in Camel favorite Willis McGehee – against Pittsburgh, if you please.
Tony has Ronnie Brown (16 points) on the bench against New England this week. It’s clear that I like Brown better than the head Camel does. Tony has a menu full of tasty options at wideout, including Donald Driver (17 points), Carolina’s Steve Smith (19 points) and Kevin Walter (27 points). The depth is there. There is no replacing Adrian Peterson, but this team should be fine after this week.
7. Midwest Marauders – This year ain’t last year, and it’s really been the injuries that have hurt the Chicago Mob so far. Stephen Jackson is questionable this week, so Hugh heads into the contest against a radioactive Steroids club with both Jackson and Jamaal Charles (bye week) sidelined.
In their place, he’s plugging in Justin Forsett and Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Not exactly the names you would hope to see, but Hugh is hoping for a much-needed break this week. The name I’m surprised to see taking a seat this week is Jonathan Stewart, who is always an interesting play although he’s been very quiet (8 points) so far this year. In the passing game, Chris Cooley (15) is all they’ve got.
8. Northern Spies – This beleaguered outfit has spent most of the season with their bench players filling in for injured starters, so any discussion of the bench is a little warped. When Ryan Matthews is playing every week – and he’s probable this week - Brandon Jackson (11 points) rides the pine. They have been saving Jeremy Maclin (30 points) for later, Later is now – he’ll be in for Visanthe Shiancoe (13 points – on the bye) this week.
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